An open apology to Irishtim
Tim,
yeah, I was wrong. It just took a couple of different approaches to the problem before I got it. Initially it's easy to see two doors = two options, thus 50/50. Also, most places (including your post) will say that the "correct" answer is to change. It's true if by correct you mean better probability (which you do), but for some reason, I read it to mean the winning choice, which it isn't. Anyways, like the ass I am I go off on the usual unfounded tangent based on a misunderstnading on my part. Obviously (like I've always said) results in Highschool don't mean much. Ahhhhhh, the story of my life.
My apologies Tim.